It’s that time again – when forecasts for the coming year are making frequent appearances. In a recent podcast , Tom Standage, editor of The World Ahead by The Economist, candidly noted that their track record for previous forecasts was less than stellar.
If the folks at The Economist don’t have a firm grasp on the future, who does?
In spite of the promises of all those YouTube pundits who claim to have predicted the last crash or bull market or both (pardon my skepticism), Yogi Berra got it right:
It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.
And yet, each governing board should state a desired future for those their organization seeks to benefit. Boards using Policy Governance® will recognize these as Ends policies: the intended difference, for intended recipients, for an intended worth.
If the board is directing the organization to put its resources toward achieving the desired future, wouldn’t it help to have some knowledge of what the future might be?
Of course! …as long as you realize there is not one, predictable future. As Standage noted:
…if you want to understand the future, … you should anticipate the unexpected, anticipate the unlikely. Just open yourself up to a wider range of possible things that might happen, because we keep getting surprised by these unlikely sounding things: a pandemic shuts down the whole world, a volcano in Iceland closes down transatlantic travel.
I’m trying to … broaden the window of possibilities that people consider for possible outcomes in 2025 and the worst that can happen is that these implausible outcomes don’t happen. But if they do you will at least have been made aware of them and given them some thought …
In other words, instead of trying to predict “the” future, broaden and deepen your understanding of potential futures. Here are three things that your board can do:
- Tap into futures resources such as online trends scanning sites, articles, books, and people. For example, take in presentations from experts in the areas in which your organization operates. Ask them to share their ideas of what the future might hold, especially if it doesn’t continue its’ current trajectory.
- Use futuring tools to explore potential futures. Just asking board members and staff about their ideas of the future is unlikely to give your board the stretch in thinking it needs.
- Make time on your agendas to collectively process the information that you’ve gathered and the ideas you’ve generated. What are the implications for your Ends policies?
Your board’s decisions today will be wiser if they are informed by a deeper understanding of potential futures. And that doesn’t happen by accident!
If you’re board is ready to explore potential futures, consider booking a discovery call with us. This is a free no-obligation conversation to learn how working with us could support your board in achieving role clarity, proactive risk management, and future focus. Book your call today!
Coming soon to a screen near you! It’s our first free webinar of 2025: Policy Governance® – Objections & Misconceptions – Round 2 on January 15. Sign up here!
Or sign up for our upcoming virtual courses. Introduction to Policy Governance® starting February 5 and Assessing Monitoring Reports starting February 12. Get more information here!